葛拉漢的淨流動資產價值 Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) 廣為人知,但葛拉漢另外有一套選股的原則,卻是較少人知道的。
下面是葛拉漢的選股十法:
1. An earnings-to-price yield at least twice the AAA bond rate。獲利與股價的比例應該至少是AAA利率的兩倍 (目前約3.86%,以4來算的話,葛拉漢認為P/E不要超過100/8,也就是12以下)。
2. P/E ratio less than 40% of the highest P/E ratio the stock had over the past 5 years。P/E的比值小於過去五年最高的P/E比的40%。
3. Dividend yield of at least 2/3 the AAA bond yield。股利是AAA利率的2/3,依目前狀況來說,4 x 0.67 約為2.68%。
4. Stock price below 2/3 of tangible book value per share。股價是帳面價值的2/3以下。
5. Stock price below 2/3 of Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)。股價在淨流動資產價值的2/3以下。
6. Total debt less than book value。所有的負債小於帳面價值。
7. Current ratio great than 2。流動比率 (也就是當前資產除以當前負債) 大於2。
8. Total debt less than 2 times Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)。所有負債必須小於淨流動資產價值的兩倍。
9. Earnings growth of prior 10 years at least at a 7% annual compound rate。前十年的平均年獲利成長至少是7%。
10. Stability of growth of earnings in that no more than 2 declines of 5% or more in year end earnings in the prior 10 years are permissible。前十年的獲利不能有兩年少於5%。
那究竟這種投資方法有沒有效呢?請待下回分解~
[…] (Graham) 的價值投資掛在嘴邊,並奉為聖經。之前文章講過葛拉漢的選股十法與淨流動資產價值 (net current asset […]